The Stage Is Set in the Desert
Tonight at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, two teams that weren't supposed to be here will battle for a spot in the national championship game. The No. 10 seed Miami Hurricanes take on the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels in the Fiesta Bowl at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN.
Both teams have already pulled off huge upsets to get here. Miami knocked off No. 2 Ohio State. Ole Miss beat No. 3 Georgia. Now they're both 60 minutes away from playing for a national title. One team's dream season continues. The other goes home.
Let's break down what's going to happen tonight.
Miami's Road to the Semifinals
The Hurricanes finished the regular season 10-2 and have been on an absolute tear in the playoffs. They started by beating Texas A&M 10-3 in a defensive slugfest on the road, then shocked the world by taking down Ohio State 24-14 in the Cotton Bowl.
Miami's defense has been the story. They've given up just 17 total points in two playoff games. Think about that. They held Ohio State's offense to 14 points. They recorded 12 sacks in two games. They've had at least four sacks in four straight games. This defensive line is relentless.
The offense has been good enough. Senior quarterback Carson Beck has been calm and steady when it matters. In the Cotton Bowl, he completed 19 of 26 passes for 138 yards and a touchdown with zero interceptions. He's not trying to be a hero. He's managing the game and letting the defense win it.
Beck set a Miami single-season record this year by completing 74.5% of his passes. For the season, he threw for 3,313 yards with 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. During Miami's four-game winning streak heading into the playoffs, he threw 11 touchdowns against just one interception. He's playing his best football at the right time.
The Hurricanes' Key Players
On defense, Miami is loaded with game-changers. Rueben Bain Jr., Akheem Mesidor, and Keionte Scott are the stars up front. Bain and Mesidor are the best pass-rushing duo left in the playoff. Ole Miss hasn't faced anyone this good all season. These guys get after the quarterback on every single play.
Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has been solid in the playoffs, rushing for 262 yards in the first two rounds. He averaged 10.1 yards per carry against Texas A&M and 4.7 yards per carry against Ohio State. When Miami needs a first down, Fletcher gets the call.
Freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney has been Beck's favorite target all season. He's caught 94 passes for 1,008 yards and eight touchdowns in 14 games. He's fast, he catches everything, and he's not afraid of big moments.
Ole Miss's Playoff Run
The Rebels have been just as impressive. They crushed Tulane 41-10 in the first round, then pulled off a stunner by beating Georgia 39-34 in the Sugar Bowl. That Georgia win was massive. The Rebels were down for most of the game and kept fighting back.
Ole Miss's offense is dangerous. Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been lights out since taking over as the starter this season. The transfer from USC has thrown for 3,660 yards with 21 touchdowns and just three interceptions. His quarterback rating of 86.8 ranks fifth in the nation. He's also rushed for over 500 yards this season, making him a dual threat.
Chambliss is only the seventh Ole Miss quarterback ever to throw for 3,000 yards in a season. He's had seven games with over 300 passing yards. In the Sugar Bowl against Georgia, he threw for a season-high 362 yards and two touchdowns and won offensive MVP. When the game was on the line, he delivered.
The Rebels' Weapons
Running back Kewan Lacy has been a beast all season. He needs just 36 yards tonight to hit 1,500 rushing yards for the season. He's scored 23 touchdowns. He's a workhorse who wears down defenses.
Wide receiver Harrison Wallace is Chambliss's go-to guy. He had 156 receiving yards against Georgia. When Ole Miss needs a big play, Wallace usually makes it. He can beat you deep or work the middle of the field.
The Rebels' offense is balanced. They can run it down your throat with Lacy or air it out with Chambliss and Wallace. They're averaging over 35 points per game in the playoffs. They put up points fast.
The Matchup That Will Decide the Game
This game comes down to one thing: Can Ole Miss's offensive line protect Trinidad Chambliss from Miami's defensive line?
Miami's pass rush is the best in the country. Bain and Mesidor are unblockable. They've destroyed every offensive line they've faced in the playoffs. If they get consistent pressure on Chambliss, the Rebels' offense will struggle.
But if Ole Miss can give Chambliss time to throw, they have the weapons to score on anybody. Kewan Lacy can also take pressure off by pounding the rock and keeping Miami's defense honest. The Rebels need to establish the run early and keep the Hurricanes' pass rushers off balance.
On the other side, can Ole Miss's defense slow down Miami's balanced attack? The Rebels haven't been great defensively all season. They gave up 34 points to Georgia. Miami doesn't need to score 40 points. If they get to 24 or 27, that might be enough with how their defense is playing.
What the Experts Are Saying
The betting line has Miami as a 3.5-point favorite. The over/under is set at 51.5 points. Most analysts are picking Miami to win because of their dominant defensive front.
Miami's defense has been a brick wall. They've allowed only 17 total points in two playoff games. Their defensive line is the most unbeatable advantage left in this playoff. The Rebels haven't played a pass rusher at the level of Rueben Bain or Akheem Mesidor all season.
But Ole Miss has the offense to keep up. Chambliss has been incredible. Lacy is a game-changer. If the Rebels can protect their quarterback and get him in rhythm early, they can score on anybody.
The X-Factors
Turnovers will be huge. Carson Beck threw 11 touchdowns against one interception during Miami's winning streak. Trinidad Chambliss has only thrown three interceptions all season. Neither quarterback is prone to mistakes, but whoever makes the first big error could lose this game.
Special teams could be the difference. A blocked punt. A big kickoff return. A missed field goal. In a close game between two evenly matched teams, the team that wins the hidden yards battle usually comes out on top.
Coaching adjustments will matter. Both teams have proven they can make halftime changes. Miami came out strong against Ohio State and never let up. Ole Miss rallied from behind against Georgia. Whoever's coaching staff makes better in-game adjustments will have a big advantage.
The Prediction
This is going to be a close, hard-fought game. Both teams have earned their spot here. Both have pulled off upsets. Both believe they can win a national championship.
But Miami's defensive line is just too much. Rueben Bain and Akheem Mesidor are going to make Trinidad Chambliss uncomfortable all night. Ole Miss will score some points, but they won't be able to keep up with their usual pace.
On offense, Carson Beck will do what he's done all playoffs. He'll be smart with the ball. He'll make a few plays with his arm. Mark Fletcher will grind out tough yards. Miami will control the clock and shorten the game.
Ole Miss will make it interesting. Kewan Lacy will have some big runs. Chambliss will make some throws under pressure. But in the fourth quarter, when Miami needs a stop, their defense will get it.
Final Score: Miami 31, Ole Miss 24
The Hurricanes are going to the national championship game. Their defense has been too dominant all playoff long. Ole Miss's dream season ends one game short, but they have nothing to hang their heads about. They beat Georgia. They made the Final Four. They just ran into a buzzsaw of a defensive line.
Miami will face the winner of tomorrow's Oregon vs. Indiana game in the national championship on Monday, January 19. The Hurricanes are playing their best football at the perfect time. Their defense is championship-caliber. And Carson Beck is proving all the doubters wrong.
How to Watch
Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Streaming: ESPN app, ESPN+
Don't miss this one. Two teams playing for a shot at a national title. One of them is going to shock the world again tonight.
